For most of the past century, the corner of Scotland below the M74 has been the bit that people drive past on the way to somewhere else. That may be about to change rather abruptly.
A visitor economy forecast prepared for regional partners and shared with the Chronicle projects an increase of up to 800% in overnight tourist stays across parts of Dumfries and Galloway by the end of 2027, measured against a 2023 baseline. The figure covers a cluster of areas including Kirkcudbright, Wigtown, the Machars and the western end of Galloway Forest Park.
The forecast attributes the rise to four things arriving at roughly the same time: the proposed national park designation, a new astronomy visitor centre near Clatteringshaws, a substantial increase in direct ferry capacity through Cairnryan, and the sort of social media attention that no tourism board has ever managed to manufacture on purpose.
‘We were the quiet one’
Local operators describe a change that has already started. Bookings at self-catering properties in the Stewartry were up sharply over the summer, with several owners reporting their first fully booked September in a decade.
“For twenty years we were the quiet one. Skye had the coaches, we had the sheep. Now people are arriving at nine at night looking for a room and there isn’t one.”
Roy Campbell, who runs a guest house near Gatehouse of Fleet
The dark skies are doing much of the work. Galloway Forest Park was the first designated Dark Sky Park in the UK, and demand for stargazing breaks has grown every year since the pandemic. Operators now report enquiries from as far as Japan and South Korea, most of them asking the same two questions: when is the new moon, and is there anywhere to eat after eight.
Beds, roads and the A75
Not everyone is celebrating. The region has fewer than 4,000 registered hotel and guest house beds, a figure that has fallen since 2019 as properties converted to residential use. Council officials privately concede that even a fraction of the forecast increase would exceed available capacity in peak weeks.
Then there is the A75. The trunk road linking the ferry port at Cairnryan to the M6 has been the subject of upgrade campaigns for the better part of forty years. Freight traffic already dominates it. Adding several hundred thousand additional leisure journeys, hauliers argue, would make an existing problem considerably worse.
The forecast at a glance
- Up to 800% growth in overnight stays by end of 2027, against a 2023 baseline
- Concentrated in Kirkcudbright, Wigtown, the Machars and western Galloway Forest Park
- Estimated £210m additional annual visitor spend at the upper end of the range
- Requires an estimated 2,400 additional beds and 900 seasonal staff
- Assumes national park designation proceeds and ferry capacity increases as planned
Housing campaigners have raised a familiar objection. In parts of the coast, short-term lets already account for a significant share of the housing stock, and average local wages sit below the Scottish average. A rapid influx of visitors without a matching increase in affordable homes, they argue, simply exports the problem that has already reshaped the Highlands.
“Growth is not a plan. A plan involves houses, buses, dentists and somewhere for the seasonal staff to sleep. We have a forecast and a press release.”
Naomi Hunter, Galloway Housing Alliance
How solid is 800%?
Statisticians consulted by the Chronicle urged caution about the headline number. Percentage growth from a low base flatters easily: a village that hosted 400 overnight visitors in 2023 needs only 3,200 to hit the figure, which one summer of decent weather and a viral video can deliver on its own.
The forecast’s upper range also assumes every enabling project lands on schedule. National park designation remains contested locally, with farming groups warning about planning restrictions and some community councils voting against. The astronomy centre has planning consent but no confirmed opening date.
A spokesperson for the regional tourism partnership said the projection was intended as a planning scenario rather than a promise, and that infrastructure work was being scoped alongside it. Asked whether the area could absorb the visitors if the higher figure materialised, they paused for some time before answering.
Whatever the true number turns out to be, the direction is not seriously disputed. The quiet corner is getting louder. The argument now is about who benefits when it does — and whether anyone will be able to book a table.
